How the Behaviour of a Few Early Movers Changes Others’ Expectations and Triggers Information Cascades: An Analysis Based on Game Theory and Threshold Mechanisms

Abstract

In today’s online public opinion, a common phenomenon is that “a small number of people speak out and the whole internet explodes.” Opinion leaders often make up only a very small share of users, but they can guide the direction of the whole discussion. This paper develops a conceptual model and uses an illustrative case analysis. It does not aim to provide empirical or causal verification. This paper analyses how the behaviour of a few early movers changes later individuals’ expectations about the importance of an event and about what others will do. It then studies how these changes affect their decision to follow. By combining information cascade theory and threshold models, this paper summarizes the conditions under which early movers can trigger collective following. It also discusses what these findings mean for research on online public opinion.